Gijs Rademaker of RTL News asked his panel which politicians they would most like to see as prime minister. The result is somewhat surprising. Indeed, the most popular candidate is a retired politician who is now briefly informateur, but who normally just enjoys writing opinions: Ronald Plasterk.
For starters, no potential prime ministerial candidate can count on support from 50% or more of the panelists. This is significant. After all, it means that the Netherlands is immensely divided. The November 22 election did not change that.
Anyway. If we then look at the frontrunners for this position, we see that Ronald Plasterk is really the most popular of all. The informateur (and PvdA'er!) can count on the support of 47% of the panelists. So nearly half of the Dutch (assuming the panel is representative) would find him "acceptable" as prime minister.
Plasterk is closely followed by - and this is interesting - Pieter Omtzigt. Fascinating. After all, Omtzigt is heavily doubting whether he even wants to govern. In addition, NSC became the fourth party in the Netherlands last year. That's quite an achievement since NSC is a new party (on paper, actually it's just CDA 2.0), but it does mean that of course he's not even close to being in the picture as a possible prime minister. Still, 44% of the Dutch would support him.
Next - in third place - comes the big winner of the election Geert Wilders. His PVV swept everyone away. The difference with the rest was and is huge.
That has had an impact. Because it is unthinkable that a few years ago he could get support from more than 4 out of 10 Dutch people for the highest political office in the country. Now he does. 42% of the Dutch consider him a fine choice as prime minister. Yes, that is lower than what he is "entitled" to as leader of the largest party, but still. It is indeed an impressive result for him - and a sign that he can duly make a bid for the Torentje.
Interestingly, Wilders is followed by two women. VVD leader Dilan Yesilgöz is only in fourth place. That's simply not good for her - especially when you consider that during the campaign she was seen as perhaps the doomed prime ministerial candidate. At least, that is how she was presented by her VVD and the media.
More importantly, Yesilgöz must settle for support from 33% of the Dutch population while her party is (significantly) larger than NSC. Pieter Omzigt is nevertheless seen as an "acceptable prime minister" by 44%. Yesilgöz does not rise above one in three.
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And then something very interesting. In fifth place is not Caroline van der Plas, of BBB, but her number two Mona Keijzer. The difference between Keijzer and Yesilgöz is minimal at three percentage points. So the number two of a party that won only 7 seats in the elections is just as popular as the leader of the country's third party; a party that has delivered the prime minister for 14 years and won 24 seats in the elections. Okay for the VVD that was not a good result. But the difference with BBB is gi-gan-tic.
Of course, the question is what will happen now? Many people are convinced that Wilders is really going to make a run for the premiership. And why not? He is leader of the largest party - the difference with the rest is huge. The RTL poll is interesting... but ultimately it's about the real numbers, namely the seats;
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